Capgemini Report Warns Banks Could Lose $230 Billion as Intelligent Money Reshapes B2B Payments
Capgemini Report Warns Banks Could Lose $230 Billion as Intelligent Money Reshapes B2B Payments #
Banks face $230 billion in revenue erosion as stablecoins, tokenised deposits and central bank digital currencies move from experimental pilots into commercial use, according to Capgemini’s World Payments Report 2027, published September 24.
The report, produced by the Capgemini Research Institute, projects that these instruments, which it labels “accelerated intelligent money,” will account for roughly 4% of global payments volume by 2030. The threatened income lines include foreign exchange spreads, correspondent banking fees, float income and transaction processing charges.
Corporate dissatisfaction is driving the shift. Despite 60% of banks naming B2B payment innovation a strategic priority over the past three years, only one in three corporate clients say they are satisfied with their primary banking partner. About 36% of B2B payment volume already moves through non-bank providers, and nearly 60% of corporate clients say they would source stablecoin services from those providers if their banks do not keep pace.
Cross-border payment costs are the main grievance. The report found that end-to-end cross-border payments take an average of 3.5 days, even though 90% of transactions reach the recipient bank within an hour. The remaining time is absorbed by compliance checks, fragmented liquidity management and reconciliation, leaving corporations with costs equivalent to 2% of transaction values. Seventy-four percent of corporate respondents described the cross-border experience as unpredictable and expensive.
According to Capgemini, stablecoins and similar instruments address those frictions through round-the-clock settlement with finality and programmability. Widespread adoption, the report estimates, could free as much as $4 trillion currently held in pre-funded settlement and liquidity accounts for lending, investment or working capital.
The research surveyed 1,110 large corporates with revenues above $1 billion and 300 banking executives across nine markets, including the US, UK, Germany, Singapore and the UAE. Banks the report classifies as “leaders,” defined as those actively scaling at least one intelligent money instrument, outpace mainstream peers by 1.5 times on cross-network transaction monitoring. Even among that group, just 56% say they have the talent and technical capability to support tokenisation, smart contracts and cross-network interoperability.
Jeroen Hölscher, Capgemini’s Global Head of Payment Services, said banks that act now will shape the governance standards of the emerging ecosystem, retain corporate deposits and capture new payment flows, while those that delay risk ceding ground that will be difficult to recover.
Copy link