ASIC Equates Prediction Markets With Gambling, Says No Safe Harbour Exists for Australian Retail Users
ASIC Equates Prediction Markets With Gambling, Says No Safe Harbour Exists for Australian Retail Users #
Australia’s corporate regulator has declared prediction markets against the public interest for retail consumers and warned that Australians using offshore platforms have no legal protections.
In a statement attributed to ASIC Chair Sarah Court, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said prediction market contracts share the core characteristics of a bet: they are highly speculative, structured around all-or-nothing outcomes, and often track events with no relationship to investment, such as whether it will rain tomorrow or how many goals a sporting team will score. ASIC said these features raise serious questions about whether such contracts can legitimately be classified as investment products.
ASIC drew a parallel with binary options, which were banned for retail clients in Australia in 2021, a ban later extended to October 2031 after the regulator found that up to 77 per cent of retail participants lost money. According to Finance Magnates, the regulator noted that under section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001, it must assess whether granting a market licence is in the public interest, a test it does not currently believe prediction market operators could meet.
The statement also put holders of Australian financial services licences on notice: their full licence obligations under Australian law continue to apply regardless of where an offshore prediction platform is based. Court said Australians who bypass local channels and go directly to offshore venues should understand they have no recourse under Australian legal frameworks if something goes wrong.
Court told a Senate estimates committee the day before the statement was released that not a single prediction market operator has applied to run its business in Australia, and that any such application would face a high bar, according to Bitcoin.com’s coverage. ASIC’s Moneysmart consumer guidance site already cautions that no prediction market is licensed as a financial market in the country and that users are more likely to lose money than make money.
ASIC also cited market integrity concerns associated with event contracts, including the potential for misuse of confidential information, market manipulation, and disputes over how outcomes are determined.
The statement follows other regulatory action in the same area. Polymarket, one of the largest global prediction market platforms, was blocked in Australia in August 2025 by the Australian Communications and Media Authority, which classified it as an illegal gambling service under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. With no applications on file and the public interest test unmet, the path to a licensed, retail-facing prediction market in Australia remains effectively closed.
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